Congrats to the Phillies but it's time to move on.


~150 days until Opening Day.



Macha is the chosen one.
Bob Brenly returns to the booth for the Cubs.
Brewers hire Ken Macha, former A's skipper who has a career .568 winning percentage and never won less than 88-games in four full seasons.
Can he keep the Brewers over .500 with Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia filing for free agency?



White Sox decline Ken Griffey 16.5 million.
Griffey hit .260 with 3 HR for the White Sox in '08.
Should The Kid retire? Does he have any gas left, is he still a draw?



What do small markets do during the Hot Stove months?
Trade with each other, of course.
Marlins deal Mike Jacobs to the Kansas City Royals for Leo Nunuz.
Jacobs had 32 homers and a .299 OBP last year, yes, that's OBP not AVG.
Nunez has a career 4.92 ERA and 1.415 WHIP.



Manny and Texiera top free agent list.
Manny batted .396 with the Dodgers in '08.
Texiera hit .358 with the Angels.
Rumored teams are?

Finally, what does a World Series MVP do during the off season:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MufTb-D4AcE

If the Williams Bros. decide to spend some money this Winter, the Reds may be worth more of my attention next Spring.

But they won't.

C'mon Twins, daddy wants a new shortstop and a dominant late inning reliever.

Should be an interesting winter for the Tigers. So much promise 2 years ago, and now we have little in the farm system and a bunch of guys in the Bigs not worth much. Trading Mags is a viable option, I guess - at least as basically the only avenue they have to bring some new players in, since it sounds like they'll be cutting payroll. Dombrowski gets a ton of slack from me, but his Sheffield and Dontrelle Willis deals were puzzling at the time, and look absolutely horrible now. As does trading Jair Jurrjens for a SS who has proven he sucks in the AL and that they just let go after 1 year.

At least I have my Phillies WS victory to comfort me...

Vazquez: trade bait for an infielder

If this means the Sox are rolling the dice with more Clayton Richard starts instead of Vazquez, this Twins fan will take it.

Meh, none of those trades really make much sense for the other teams. The Sun-Times and the Tribune both have bad habits of proposing all these never-going-to-happen trades involving guys coming off mediocre-bad seasons (Konerko, Vazquez). I think both those guys are going to have to come back next year because you won't get any value for Konerko and you won't get proper value for Vazquez's IP and K numbers as well as his injury immunity.

There's an MLB.com article from yesterday about the Sox "youth movement" (basically translates to giving the, like, four decent non-pitching AA+ prospects in their system an honest shot). Kenny does sort of imply that he's not interested in chasing the Cabreras/Hunters like last year. But Kenny is also insane and likes to float trial baloons, suddenly reverse course, spread misinformation, raise/lower expectations, etc. So I'm cautious.

The fact is they need Vazquez's reliable innings more than ever with Contreras likely a non-factor. Clayton Richard is a possible starter but if spring training goes well maaaybe Jack Egbert or Aaron Poreda could have a shot. More likely a Colon/Loiza-type trash-heap dude is signed as the number five.

If I weigh my optimism against my pessimism I'll predict cheapy free agent veteran #5 for the first half of the season with Poreda ready to come up for the second half.

Elsewhere... 3B/2B could be Fields/Getz backed up by Uribe/Nix/?-additional-second-string guy. As long as they stay away from Orlando Hudson-type possibilities there's a lot of flexibility there. If they're going to sign a big free agent position player I might just hope it's in center field as I think Owens has the least upside of those prospects. But then I would still be OK with Swisher out there so what do I know. Another bullpen arm is always nice but Jenks/Thornton/Carrasco is pretty good already and I don't hate Dotel/Linebrink. But there are very few sensible trades because of the jammed-up nature of the Sox roster and the bad/unproven-at-best nature of AAA.

I'd give up Delmon Young and someone like Blackburn or Perkins for both of those.

I think giving up Delmon Young is going to be a huge mistake, but it seems likely to happen since they won't net anything for Cuddyer at this point. Hopefully someone really ponies up. The early talk is that San Fran likes him a lot and that they're working out some way to package Young and Perkins for Matt Cain, but I'm not holding my breathe. Young had a really good 2nd half and while his ability to take a walk may never develop, I see him eventually becoming an extra base hit machine if not the home run slugger everyone is still expecting.

I think Blackburn needs to be traded this year, but I don't see that happening either.


Raj, you're not going to get a debate about the Vazquez trade idea from me. If it happens, I don't see how it would not hurt the Sox in 2009 unless their looking for prospect ammo to pull off a trade further down the road.

Have they given up on Josh Fields? Weren't they ready to trade Crede last year to start Fields at third?
Worst fantasy draft pick made by me last year was Josh Fields, no, J.R. Towles.
I don't follow the Sox at all but Kenny Williams always seems to pull off some head scratching trades in the off season that nobody was figuring on.

As for the Cubs who I follow very religiously, I don't even know what they can do in the offseason.
I've heard people say trade Derrek Lee and put Micah Hoffpauir there, but Hoffpauir is a pretty old rookie and has six career mlb games at first base.
Do they want to rely on that. He has a total of 80 plate apperences in the major leagues.
His minor league track record is pretty impressive though, but he's been down there for seven years.
Derrek Lee at 28 had 8-years of major league experience by the time Hoffpauir had 1.

Reeeeeally looking forward to the MLB Network next year (assuming it's aadded to DirecTV for free, of course):

Who's that?

He was hurt early last year, which is the main reason he didn't see any playing time. He should get a shot at playing full time because he proved himself during 2006. I think they will probably let him earn it in spring training with someone like Russell Branyan or Doug Mientkiewicz around as an insurance policy.


yeah, this is still entirely likely

Time, time, time, see whats become of me
While I looked around
For my possibilities
I was so hard to please
But look around, leaves are brown
And the sky is a hazy shade of winter

Hear the salvation army band
Down by the riverside, its bound to be a better ride
Than what youve got planned
Carry your cup in your hand
And look around, leaves are brown now
And the sky is a hazy shade of winter

Hang on to your hopes, my friend
Thats an easy thing to say, but if your hopes should pass away
Simply pretend
That you can build them again
Look around, the grass is high
The fields are ripe, its the springtime of my life

Ahhh, seasons change with the scenery
Weaving time in a tapestry
Wont you stop and remember me
At any convenient time
Funny how my memory slips while looking over manuscripts
Of unpublished rhyme
Drinking my vodka and lime

But look around, leaves are brown now
And the sky is a hazy shade of winter

Look around, leaves are brown
Theres a patch of snow on the ground...

Simon and Garfunkle
Hazy Shade of Winter

Heidi Strobel (born October 29, 1978, Bethesda, Maryland) was a contestant on season six of the American reality television show Survivor: The Amazon. She placed fifth, lasting thirty-six days. During an endurance challenge, she and fellow contestant Jenna Morasca stripped off their clothing in exchange for peanut butter and Oreo cookies. The two would later appear in the August 2003 edition of Playboy magazine.

Strobel attended Drury University where she received a Bachelor of Arts in exercise physiology, secondary education and physical education. Before she joined the cast of Survivor, she was a teacher. She is currently working on a master’s degree in physical education at West Chester University in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Heidi married Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels on December 31, 2006. Hamels lead the Phillies to the 2008 World Series victory and was named World Series MVP.

As a White Sox fan, if they trade Javy Vazquez, I will personally drive him to the airport.

Clayton Richard (or Broadway or whoever) can be a .500 pitcher, just like Vazquez and will probably give up less homers. He strikes out people, I will give him that, he is VERY good at that. But tooooooo many homers in the best homer park in the league for my blood. I didn't like it when they got him and I was proved right.

This doesn't make sense. Vazquez's HR/9 is 1.08, which is not great, but is also not much worse than Buehrle's .91. Of course neither of them are close to top-10-HR-yielder Gavin Floyd, who clocks in at a ugly 1.31. I assume you want to get rid of him more than anything, right?

Also, in 2007, Vazquez gave up more home runs than in 2008, but he also posted a 3.74 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Richard is .94 but it's too small of a sample size. His minor league HR rate is great at .41, although I don't know off the top of my head how much you have to adjust up in expectation for big-league hitting, or how pitcher friendly the southern league parks are.

If you're really keen on HR rates you should be most excited about Aaron Poreda, who has a gross .30. Of course that's just A and AA, but his Twins-style intense control pitching could project to a more reliable career-long low BB/HR showing (vis a vis Richard or Broadway or whoever). Should find out in spring training if he's an immediate bullpen patch, a AAA starter, or (very optimistically) ready to start in the majors.

Getting rid of someone I didn't want on the team in the first place is my goal.

If Kenny can trade him and get a leadoff hitter/2B in return (cough, BrianRoberts, cough), then I'm all for it.

My point is that he is expendable. He will not make the difference in a 2009 AL Central title. He's worth more in a trade than he is as a pitcher.

As a Twins fan, I agree with Killface and hope KW concurs.

This is inefficient behavior. Even if the original Vazquez trade and/or the contract extension were bad ideas (fair arguments to make) the team is in this situation and needs to make a decision based on the current value. You can't just sell low. This is the same thinking as the people who wanted to outright Contreras late last year. If Kenny Williams had listened to them, they wouldn't have had his pretty good performance for most of this year and the Sox wouldn't have gone to the postseason.

Every offseason people just want to trade whichever players had the worst seasons and it's almost never a very good idea.


Why would the Orioles want Vazquez? The only thing they're interested in right now are prospects.


How is the most reliable inning eater in baseball expendable on a team that is (1 already short one starter and (2 has a young pitching staff? John Danks and Gavin Floyd both had dramatic increases in their IP in 2008. It's entirely likely that at least one of them will suffer a hard regression (Floyd), severe fatigue (Danks), or an injury (either) in 2009. This happens all the time - Fausto Carmona, for example.

With guys like Carmona, it's easy to anticipate a huge regression. Anybody expecting anything better than a mid-4 ERA from him this year is insane. Even with all of the stars aligned he couldn't get below 3. Then you look at Floyd and Danks... Floyd had a fair bit of luck (that many walks and HRs and such a low K rate is a recipe for disaster) and had a respectable ERA, but unless he makes some major improvements, look for an ERA around 5. Back of the rotation, not somebody you want to count on. Danks on the other hand is looking very impressive, and is also a few years younger than Floyd. I'd count on him for an ERA below 4. He has control issues as well, but he can get away with it due to his ability to keep the ball in the park and get a lot of Ks. In previous seasons he has had problems with HRs, but it looks like he's worked out that kink at least to some extent.

Now Vazquez... he's an enigma. He is SO good so often, but he has little shitstorms tossed in every so often. I've always liked the guy, and he always seems to pitch 5 masterful innings, and then give up a couple homeruns to ruin it all. He's like Johan Santana, except Johan is so fucking good that nobody notices. Vaz is the one exception I can think of to the rule of measuring a pitcher's worth by his HR, K, and BB rates. It seems to be a confidence problem. It's just oh so tempting to think that if he can loosen up he is instant Cy Young material, without exaggeration. Sox fans seem to hate him though, in the same way that Yankees fans hate A-Rod.

God I love Rob Neyer:

Derek Jeter was ROBBED!



AL Gold Glove Winners

P - MIKE MUSSINA - YANKEES
C - JOE MAUER - TWINS
1ST - CARLOS PENA - RAYS
2ND - DUSTIN PEDROIA - RED SOX
3RD - ADRIAN BELTRE - MARINERS
SS - MICHAEL YOUNG - RANGERS
OF - TORII HUNTER - ANGELS
OF - GRADY SIZEMORE - INDIANS
OF - ICHIRO SUZUKI - MARINERS

They ever not been Gold Glovers in their careers?

Bartlett was robbed.

Hunter hasn't been deserving since 2005, as his zone comes down a little every year.

I actually thought Mauer had an off-year defensively. He made some errors in key spots and didn't have nearly as high of a throw-out %, but the latter I think is due to the fact that many fewer baserunners attempted on him. I can't think of who would be better in the AL, so I guess that's an ok selection.

When are MVPs and Cy Youngs?

Holy crap - is he worth it!? Excerpted from espn.com regarding Manny:

The Los Angeles Times reported Wednesday that the Dodgers' offer is believed to be for either two years at $50 million or three years for $75 million.

If A-Rod is worth 27.5, then probably. He's a more dangerous hitter that strikes out less, but has little defensive value.

According to Hardball Times, Manny had 34 win shares in 2008 between LA and Boston and Arod had 25 in New York.

I think the theory is that they'd rather give him (more like Boras) the shiny "$/year" status symbol than be tied to him at slightly less money for 4-6 years. Then there's the voodoo with how much of that will actually be deferred (his Red Sox contract wasn't just simply $20M/ year, the present value was $17M+ a year). This has more to do with Manny getting as much as possible and also getting some money for Boras, who hasn't yet pocketed a dime from Manny because he didn't negotiate that last contract. This may also be attractive to Manny because in 2-3 years, if he continues to produce, he could squeeze another 2-3 year contract out of someone.

So you're saying Boras should ask for $32 million?

He's a DH. Period. Right? He's a liability anywhere on the field save at bat. Right?

Pat Burrell thinks Manny is a pretty good LFer.

Depends, is "NLDS Loss Column" on the field anywhere? Because he's a liability for getting those.

Last five years Manny had 137.6 WS (.19 per game) compared to ARODS 155.5 (.20 per game) and AROD is 4-years younger.

But Manny will be 37-years old next year and the country is in a recession so no way is he worth AROD money.

3 years at $25 per is extensively cheaper and less risky than 9 years at $27.5 per. So I think it's entirely possible.

Don't the Cubs already have the worst fielding left-fielder in the history of baseball?
Could Manny DH for Koske in interleague games and let the pitchers bat?

Oh, hell no - I wasn't hinting at trying to land Manny - you're more than correct about crow-hopping Soriano's adventures out in left. The logo was a proud response to MattW's poke about the Cubs quick postseason exit. Again.

Geovany Soto could be the unanymous choice for NL ROY when the awards are announced in an hour or so. The ESPN baseball writers all tapped him as their choice. Over in the AL Rays 3rd baseman E. Longoria is the favorite (although some folks make mention of that skinny kid from the other Chicago team).

There may be as many as 176 free agent players by this Thursday's deadline.

So Soto got 31 of 32 RotY votes. The other went to Joey Votto.

Really?

Joey Votto?

Soto is the NL rookie of the year. I'm sure that takes some of the sting out of the playoff failure this year.

then again...

If you could chose the Cubs to resign either Dempster or Wood which would you chose?

Here's the full list.

Henry Blanco, C 37 - reports are they will resign him. can't hit a lick.
Ryan Dempster, SP 31 - expendable if they get Peavy. most likely won't repeat 2008 season. probably will end up like Mike Bielecki.
Jim Edmonds, CF 38 - 2nd most surprising Cub season behind Dempster. not really needed with Reed and Pie.
Chad Fox, RP 38 - good bye
Bob Howry, RP 35 - nice knowing ya.
Jon Lieber, RP 38 - didn't work out.
Daryle Ward, LF 33 - Hoffpauir is a much cheaper, dependable option.
Kerry Wood, RP - face of the Cubs, a new era begins if he goes.

Hank White's value lies in his tutelage of Soto. I'd say it's panning out pretty well. The staff is well known to really like & trust Blanco, too . No, he doesn't have much in his bat but he's a dependable back-up and calls a good game & provides solid defense. And he's cheap.

I don't think Dempster will touch the numbers he put up this year either (and the scars from his horror show NLDS start may end up giving him the yips) - he wants to stick his toe in free agency - I say let him. See what he can command then determine if your interest is still there.

Smell you later Edmonds, Fox, Howry (and good riddance to you, jackass) and Lieber. I've got a soft spot for Ward - he's always smiling & seemingly in a good mood, grateful to be playing a game for a living. He also hit a grand slam the day I told my folks my missus was pregnant. And Wood. Oh, Woody. What to do with Woody. When the season started he was plunking every other batter he faced, it seems, but he straightened out over the season. No clue what to do with that guy...

I do know that I read a few weeks back that Larry Rothschild is a fellow alum of Homewood-Flossmoor high school - he was class of '71. I didn't know they had high schools back then.

I've insulted Howry - this means he'll enjoy career highs next year. This is how it works for me. Except for Kent Mercker - that fucking jerk is going to retire from what I read recently.

I miss baseball...

Nobody talking about Holliday going to the A's?

Yep, also a team ERA goes down about a run when he fills in and nobody bothers stealing bases on him. I can think of a few options that would be worse for back up catcher. Pretty much most of them. Maybe not Mike Redmond, that might be a push because he's close to as good defensively and his bat is serviceable.

People will say that the A's won the trade just because Billy Beane was involved.

Do you know what site I can get catching ERA at?
Should be an interesting stat to look at.
Is the Blanco stat lower career? He was Zambrano's personal catcher for awhile, I think.

Easy enough to say but i really do think this is a good move for Oakland. Beane's been looking to trade Street for a long time and Smith's numbers do nothing to suggest he's more than a serviceable starting pitcher. Carlos Gonzalez is a wildcard and could make this a great deal for the Rockies but there's no reason to think Beane won't get at least as much back when he turns around and trades Holliday a year and a half from now.

Do you mean six months from now? Pretty sure Holliday's contract only goes through the end of the 2009 season, so he'll be a free agent after that.

yeah, holliday is next year's sabathia if he actually starts the season with oakland. i don't think his career home/road splits really point toward the coliseum working for him.